Saudi Arabia’s Modernization
October 29, 2019

Editor’s note: Some names and identifying characteristics have been changed for security purposes.

For a leader who has “more money than God,” as USC professor and Middle Eastern scholar Laurie Brand said, Mohammed Bin Salman’s (MBS) foundation-shaking rise to power in 2017 as the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia has raised eyebrows and questions from the international community regarding his motives and moves for the future.

MBS’ rule has brought significant change to this conservative Gulf country, including a plan for economic diversification (Vision 2030), a corruption “purge” at the highest levels of government, and more rights for women including the right to drive and a relaxing of the male guardianship laws. At the same time, MBS has projected a different face abroad as he wages a war in Yemen with an unprecedented death toll, engages in a dispute with Lebanon, causes a diplomatic crisis with Qatar, enforces a crackdown on Saudi female activists at home, struggles with Canadian diplomats, and allegedly orders the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

“It seems that he’s working on different registers,” Brand said. “I mean, there’s the really ugly coercive force that is very much at his disposal which he doesn’t hesitate to use if he thinks he needs to. And then you’ve got these other elements where [he’s] loosening the reins a bit.”

Extreme ambition is what seems to be fueling Vision 2030 as MBS steers his country away from relying on oil as the main revenue source for a state-supported population.

But when it comes right down to it, Brand didn’t hesitate to assign a motive, saying, “It’s about power. And it’s about the projection of that power. I just think he is extremely ambitious in the kind of power-hungry sense.”

Extreme ambition is what seems to be fueling Vision 2030 as MBS steers his country away from relying on oil as the main revenue source for a state-supported population. He’s making investments in sustainable energy, tourism, and “entertainment villages” with sports arenas, theme parks, movie cinemas, and arts venues.

Brand sees this break from ultra conservative Muslim tradition as a way to appeal to the younger generation and avoid the pitfalls of his North African neighbors whose Arab Spring uprisings dethroned several long-time monarchs and caused severe civil unrest.

For now, the plan seems to be working.

Tonkal, part of the young, educated population of Saudis taking advantage of opportunities funded by the government to study abroad, believes the prince sees the potential of Saudi Arabia to become one of the five most powerful countries in the world.

Mohammed Tonkal, graduate student and president of the Saudi Student Organization at the University of Southern California, said he loves his country “so much.” His clean-cut dark brown hair and loosely hung scarf complement the slight smile on his lips as he talks about his country and its de facto leader.

“We share the same name,” he said with an air of pride.

Tonkal, part of the young, educated population of Saudis taking advantage of opportunities funded by the government to study abroad, believes the prince sees the potential of Saudi Arabia to become one of the five most powerful countries in the world.

“Mohammed bin Salman saw that potential and he took that lead to lift the country to the next level,” he says.

Ahmad, a Saudi national and graduate student studying engineering at USC, sees the changes as positively impacting generations to come.

It is difficult to tell whether or not students studying abroad and the younger generation all have bright eyes for the future.

“We are seeing this as a positive because the next generation will benefit from this,” Ahmad said. “Because if we rely on oil and don’t have a vision, our next generation will suffer. This is quite a great moment that we start looking for a vision and a change for our country. And not even for the country, it is for the world. We want this planet to survive for longer.”

Faisal, another Saudi graduate student at USC, is excited about the future and vision for his country. “It has been four years [since MBS came to power], but I think it’s 40 years of improvement,” he says.

Abdullah, a Kuwaiti-born Saudi citizen, sees the changes as substantial progress.

“It’s very evident that those changes are real,” Abdullah said.

But it is difficult to tell whether or not students studying abroad and the younger generation all have bright eyes for the future. Certainly some have made headlines recently as they've sought asylum as far away as Australia and Canada. MBS, for his part, has been clear where he stands on opposition and corruption. Jamal Khashoggi’s murder in Turkey and the infamous Ritz-Carlton round-up of corrupt officials likely lurk in the minds of most Saudi nationals.

Not all in the historically conservative country of Saudi Arabia feel the same excitement for the future under the direction of the heir to current King Salman.

“I think that shocked a lot of people,” Brand said, referring to the corruption crackdown. “And probably, if they didn’t already fear God, put at least the fear of MBS into a lot of people.”

But even students like Tonkal understand and can speak to the conflict at the core of change.

“Now some people are actually divided,” Tonkal said. “Some people say that Vision 2030 is just words in books and papers, and others say, ‘No, these are actions and they are now taking the responsibility and the lead.’”

Dana, a Saudi national and American citizen living in the United States, sees the positive changes happening in the Kingdom and brushes off the negative press.

“But they are changing, and I respect that change,” she said. “It is slow to change because of the culture. They don’t want to do a big change because they will have a culture shock.”

Not all in the historically conservative country of Saudi Arabia feel the same excitement for the future under the direction of the heir to current King Salman.

Many of the older generation of Saudis are against the recent changes.

Ahmad admitted his father and many of the older generation of Saudis are against the recent changes.

“Old people have lived a long period of time under one system, and it is difficult to change,” he said.

Tonkal respects the challenges inherent in leading an entire country to a new way of life.

“Saudis are very difficult to deal with,” Tonkal said. “We were very conservative and closed to everything, so [then] the TVs and the internet got into our houses and we started traveling around the world, and when those kids got older, they have different opinions and perspectives of the world that is not the same as their parents. As a crown prince making those rules, he has to satisfy all those people.”

Abdullah agreed, saying, “It was a culture shock for Saudis, but they have adapted very well. Some people are still against [the changes], but they will adapt eventually. The Saudis are making a great leap for the future as they have the right mental and monetary resources. The country is making rapid and positive changes in terms of human rights and improving the welfare of its population.”

"The country is making rapid and positive changes in terms of human rights and improving the welfare of its population."

Abdullah

Brand offered a bit of caution to the tale, saying, “Societies are capable of incorporating relatively new things and making them tradition. I just wouldn’t underestimate the potential of conservative forces to strike back.”

And as for MBS, Brand said, “The level of ruthlessness cannot be papered over, can’t be obscured by any of this other stuff that they’re doing. He’s shown himself to be anything but a clear, careful, and visionary thinker.”

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Paige Smith is a USC graduate student participating in a foreign affairs reporting class taught by Professor Phil Seib, a collaboration between the Pacific Council and the Annenberg School of Communication and Journalism.

Homoud Al Homoud is a USC graduate student participating in a foreign affairs reporting class taught by Professor Phil Seib, a collaboration between the Pacific Council and the Annenberg School of Communication and Journalism.

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Pacific Council.

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