The New "Scramble for Africa" at PolicyWest
October 29, 2018

Six out of the world’s 10 fastest growing economies, and 21 of its 30 fastest growing cities, are in Africa. The continent's population is projected to double by 2050 and double again by 2100, virtually guaranteeing growth for the foreseeable future.

These are just a few of the reasons Cassady Walters, senior director at the Albright Stonebridge Group's Africa practice, gave for the renewed interest in Africa by nations and businesses the world over.

Speaking at the Pacific Council for International Policy's PolicyWest conference, Walters described this phenomenon as a mixed-blessing for the continent. According to Walters, Africa's newfound popularity has brought much needed investment while simultaneously stirring resentment among some Africans for perceived exploitation by foreign firms.

World leaders are taking notice of Africa's potential and are increasing their involvement in ways not seen in a century.

These trends are part of what has been described as the "new scramble for Africa"—a reference to the original "scramble for Africa" from 1881 to 1914 when the continent was divided and occupied by European powers. World leaders are taking notice of Africa's potential and are increasing their involvement in ways not seen in a century.

"In addition to China, which we know well, Latin American countries—Brazil, Argentina—Europe, the gulf countries, India and Turkey are all looking to Africa to increase their economic and political ties," said Walters.

China has been Africa's largest trading partner since 2009. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Chinese foreign direct investment in Africa more than doubled between 2011 and 2016, from $16 to $40 billion. Since 2013, this investment has been spurred by China's Belt and Road initiative, which aims to use an estimated $5 trillion in international infrastructure investments to build a "new silk road" connecting China and the rest of the world.

"What we see in China's example in Africa is an understanding that not only does Africa provide economic opportunities, but that investing in Africa positions China as a key strategic partner in the region and around the world," said Walters.

Han Hongmei, chairman of the China-Africa Fund for Industrial Cooperation (CAFIC), said that China’s economy is in a transition from traditional industries to technology and service industries. According to Han, many African economies have benefited from this trend by providing these traditional industry services, such as manufacturing, to the Chinese market. "Africa has a huge population. The labor costs are only a quarter of China’s," said Han.

"What we see in China's example in Africa is an understanding that not only does Africa provide economic opportunities, but that investing in Africa positions China as a key strategic partner in the region and around the world," said Walters.

According to statistics from the CAFIC, more than 2,000 Chinese companies have invested in Africa in the fields of natural resource mining, finance, infrastructure, power generation, textiles, and household appliances. Han noted that the investment not only created jobs in Africa but also supported China’s shift from a industrial to service-oriented economy.

Other countries are following this example. The Dubai Chamber of Commerce estimates that the energy-rich nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council invested $30 billion in Africa between 2007 and 2017. Russia is attempting to revive Soviet-era ties it had with many African nations, supplying weapons and signing military cooperation deals with nations across the continent.

Even the United States, marked by increasingly inward-looking policies under the Trump administration, has quietly taken steps to increase its involvement on the continent. The Better Utilization of Investments Leading to Development Act, or BUILD, revamped the agency at the forefront of encouraging U.S. investment in Africa, expanding its capabilities and doubling its budget to $60 billion.

According to Walters, this expanded interest provides African nations more room to maneuver in their bilateral dealings. "African leaders are increasingly savvy in forging partnerships and have made it clear they will do what is in the best interest of their country," said Walters.

Walters cited the example of Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo, who asserted in a recent speech in London that Ghana was impartial where foreign investment came from, as long as the country could fund its development.

Yet, not all of the changes that the increased foreign involvement have brought to Africa have been positive. Incidents such as the recent viral video of a Chinese boss in Kenya telling a local employee that Kenyans were "like a monkey people" and undeserving of equal treatment, highlight growing racial and cultural divides.

"Nobody is coming, pretending to be bringing God's Word in one hand and taking our lands with the other; this time round we will look after our interests in much the same way as all other nations we deal with look after their own interests," said Akufo-Addo according to the Ghana High Commission's report on the event.

Yet, not all of the changes that the increased foreign involvement have brought to Africa have been positive. Incidents such as the recent viral video of a Chinese boss in Kenya telling a local employee that Kenyans were "like a monkey people" and undeserving of equal treatment, highlight growing racial and cultural divides.

Walters acknowledged that complaints against Chinese behavior have grown alongside deepening economic ties. "There is a perception that … they [China] tend to look out for their own interests and so will ship over Chinese workers and stay in small enclaves, creating their own little Chinese economies and really adding little to the local economy," she said.

Analysts have also raised concerns around the high levels of debt being accrued by African countries. Kenya owes $50 billion in public debt, over 21 percent of which comes from China, which is by far the country's largest bilateral lender.

"There is a perception that … they [China] tend to look out for their own interests and so will ship over Chinese workers and stay in small enclaves, creating their own little Chinese economies and really adding little to the local economy," she said.

According to The Economist, the median debt level in Africa is over 50% of GDP. This figure is not high by international standards, however, due to the decline in global commodity prices last year and the slowdown in economic growth, it’s difficult for African countries to pay back the increasing interest rates. As a result, the International Monetary Fund issued a warning in 2018 that sub-Saharan African countries are in a "debt crisis."

The rising debt is also cause for concern in terms of what debt-forgiveness programs might be pursued by China.

A recent report from the Harvard Kennedy School of Business described China's approach to dealing with the mounting debts of African nations as "debtbook diplomacy." The report states that, "when countries prove unable to pay back their debts, China has already and is likely to continue to offer debt-forgiveness in exchange for both political influence and strategic equities."

In her concluding remarks at the PolicyWest conference, Walters noted that the Chinese government has taken note of the complaints against it and is looking to address them.

"It's also up to African countries, when they're negotiating with the Chinese to say, 'you need to employ our citizens and you can only bring in so many Chinese laborers,'" said Walters. "I think African governments are also becoming savvier in this regard."

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James Cutchin and Meijun Li are USC graduate students participating in a foreign affairs reporting class taught by Professor Phil Seib, a collaboration between the Pacific Council and the Annenberg School of Communication and Journalism.

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Pacific Council.

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