Artificial intelligence is reshaping the threat landscape for weapons of mass destruction in ways that existing arms control frameworks were never designed to address. Frontier AI models now possess capabilities that could meaningfully accelerate the development of nuclear and biological weapons, compress the timeline for proliferation, and introduce new vulnerabilities into the systems states rely on to manage their most dangerous arsenals. 

On Thursday, November 19 at 11:30 am PT, the Pacific Council is hosting a webinar to examine the governance challenge at the heart of these shifts and explore how governments and industry should regulate AI models whose dual-use potential extends to catastrophic harm.

Why it's important:

• A 2026 industry safety report found that several leading AI labs have added model restrictions after they could not rule out that their systems might assist novices in developing chemical or biological weapons, yet oversight remains largely voluntary and uncoordinated.
• UNGA Resolution A/RES/80/23, passed in December 2025 with 115 states in favor, flagged serious risks from integrating AI into NC3 systems, including compressed decision windows, opacity, and susceptibility to cyber threats. 
• CIA Director John Ratcliffe's 2026 comparison of frontier AI to nuclear weapons reflects the growing recognition of AI as a strategic national security asset. 

To register for this webinar, visit the Zoom Registration Page.

Speakers include:

Erin D. Dumbacher, Stanton Nuclear Security Senior Fellow and Director of the Defense and National Security Program, Council on Foreign Relations

Dr. Stephen Herzog, Professor of the Practice, International and Global Studies; Director, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Vermont Office, Middlebury College

Guest Speaker

Erin D. Dumbacher is Stanton Nuclear Security Senior Fellow and Director of the Defense and National Security program at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Her research interests include the intersection of emerging technologies with nuclear weapons and security, nuclear force posture, and space systems. Her work has appeared in outlets including The New York Times, Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, and Foreign Policy, among others.

Dumbacher most recently served in the Department of Defense in the Office of the Under Secretary for Policy’s force development and emerging capabilities office as a CFR international affairs fellow, where she was the principal force development advisor for nuclear weapons, space, and non-kinetic capabilities. Dumbacher authored and coordinated Defense Planning Guidance; led force development work to address counterspace threats; and facilitated the responsible adoption of new technologies, including drafting the Joe Biden-Xi Jinping commitment to reduce risks at the intersection of artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons. In 2025, she received the Office of the Secretary of Defense Medal for Exceptional Public Service.

Previously, Dumbacher led nuclear, space, cyber, and energy technology policy research at In-Q-Tel and the Nuclear Threat Initiative. At In-Q-Tel, as director for strategic policy analysis, Dumbacher made recommendations to policymakers for harnessing venture-backed technologies. At the Nuclear Threat Initiative, her report, U.S. Nuclear Modernization: Security & Policy Implications of Integrating Digital Technology, led to a National Defense Authorization Act requirement for a failsafe review of U.S. nuclear weapons. She was also the staff lead for a U.S.-Russia Track II dialogue, an open-source experiment to apply machine learning tools to nonproliferation, and author of the 2018 Nuclear Security Index.

Originally from Huntsville, Alabama, Dumbacher started her career as a strategy analyst and market researcher at Atlantic Media and Corporate Executive Board. She was a Fulbright research fellow in Tallinn, Estonia. She holds a BA from the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Guest Speaker

Dr. Stephen Herzog is Professor of the Practice in the International and Global Studies Program at Middlebury College and the Director of the Vermont Office of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS). He is the Editor-in-Chief of the peer-reviewed journal The Nonproliferation Review, an Associate of Harvard University’s Project on Managing the Atom, and a Fellow of the Yale Nuclear Security Program. His research focuses on nuclear arms control, nonproliferation, disarmament, and the intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and nuclear weapons. At Middlebury, Dr. Herzog leads CNS academic programming on the campus and teaches and mentors students in global security and public policy analysis.

Prior to joining Middlebury, Dr. Herzog was a Lecturer and Senior Researcher in Nuclear Arms Control at the Center for Security Studies of ETH Zurich, the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology. He has also been a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Between 2022 and 2025, he was Academic Co-Chair of the Beyond Nuclear Deterrence Working Group for Harvard and the MacArthur Foundation. Before his doctoral studies, Dr. Herzog was a nuclear arms control verification official at the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration and also worked at the Federation of American Scientists. He has worked, researched, and traveled in over 100 countries.

Dr. Herzog’s research is published in Contemporary Security Policy, Energy Research & Social Science, the European Journal of International Security, International Security, the Journal of Conflict Resolution, the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, the Journal of Peace Research, the Naval War College Review, Perspectives on Politics, Risk Analysis, Survival, The Journal of Politics, and The Nonproliferation Review. His public affairs commentary has been featured in outlets including Arms Control Today, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the Financial Times, Foreign Policy, Science, The National Interest, The Washington Post, and War on the Rocks. He co-edited Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail (MIT Press, 2025). His article on the nexus of AI and nuclear weapons proliferation won a 2025 Best Paper Award from the Society for Risk Analysis.

Dr. Herzog holds a B.A. in International Relations from Knox College, an M.A. in Security Studies from the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, and an M.A., M.Phil., and Ph.D. in Political Science from Yale University.

 

To register for this webinar, visit the Zoom Registration Page.